Bitcoin may not have bottomed yet and could slide toward $57,000 before a meaningful recovery takes hold, according to early investor and Bitcoin Supercycle author Michael Terpin, challenging the market’s increasingly bullish outlook.

Terpin — widely known as the “Crypto Godfather” — said recent gains fail to signal a trend reversal, arguing the market remains in a broader corrective phase. In his view, bitcoin must reclaim $100,000 with strong conviction before a true bull cycle can be confirmed, a scenario he says currently lacks technical backing.

“Price action still reflects a downtrend,” Terpin said, adding that the market has yet to build a reliable support base.

A longtime crypto participant since 2013, Terpin has played a key role in the industry’s early development through ventures such as Transform Group, CoinAgenda, and BitAngels. His latest forecast stands in contrast to the prevailing consensus that bitcoin’s decline to around $60,000 in February marked the cycle low.

That more optimistic narrative has been driven by sustained inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, along with the asset’s resilience during geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.

Terpin, however, pointed to a recent rejection near the $80,000 level during Asian trading hours as a sign of continued weakness. He said such failed attempts to move higher are typical during late-stage corrections, where markets form lower highs before a final capitulation phase.

Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, shares the view that the bottom may not yet be in place but questions Terpin’s timing. He said the market has not experienced full capitulation — a phase typically marked by heavy selling, the exit of long-term holders, and a sharp reduction in leverage.

“A delayed bottom is a reasonable scenario, but we haven’t seen the kind of exhaustion that usually defines it,” Fernandes said. “Macro uncertainty and speculative positioning are still elevated.”

Terpin’s $57,000 target is rooted in historical cycle behavior, particularly the tendency for bitcoin to take roughly a year to establish a bottom. He expects this process to unfold by October.

Fernandes added that macroeconomic conditions remain a key drag, with tight liquidity and a prolonged higher interest rate environment continuing to pressure risk assets.

“Without a clear shift in monetary policy or a broad market washout, downside risks remain,” he said.

Terpin also cast doubt on bitcoin reaching a new all-time high this year — a view that diverges from more bullish forecasts.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, pushed back, arguing that institutional demand and expanding adoption could still drive prices higher.

“While Terpin’s perspective is cautious, it may be too bearish,” Greenspan said. “A new all-time high this year remains entirely plausible.”

Fernandes noted that sentiment has yet to reach the extreme pessimism typically associated with market bottoms, suggesting further downside cannot be ruled out.

“We’re not seeing the level of fear that usually accompanies a durable low,” he said. “That implies there could still be another leg lower before a base is formed.”

On the significance of $100,000, Fernandes said the level is more psychological than structural.

“A sustained bull market is defined by higher highs and strong inflows,” he said. “However, breaking $100,000 could act as a catalyst for that shift.”