Fed Rate-Cut Odds Plunge to 33% as Jobs Data Delays Shake Market Expectations

Traders have sharply downgraded expectations for a December rate cut after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release October jobs data, with the November report also delayed until after the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of a Fed rate cut now sits at just 33%, down from 50% a day earlier. Less than a month ago, markets were pricing in nearly a 100% chance of a December cut. The shift follows Chairman Jerome Powell’s late-October comments, which signaled resistance to further monetary easing, and subsequent speeches that highlighted deep divisions within the central bank over policy direction.

The recalibration of expectations has been a major factor in the recent crypto selloff. Bitcoin has tumbled from around $110,000 ahead of Powell’s comments to roughly $89,000 today. Crypto-related equities have suffered even more, with stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) down 10% Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month, while Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) has fallen roughly 10% today and almost 40% since late October.

The delayed jobs reports mean the Fed will be without one of its key inputs for the December meeting. Historically, the central bank relies heavily on up-to-date labor and inflation data to guide policy. Without fresh employment figures, it is unlikely that hawkish members will shift toward supporting another rate cut this year.

Adding to the market chatter, former President Donald Trump commented at an investment forum this week that he would have fired Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recommendation to let him serve until 2026.

Investors will get one final national jobs update before the December meeting—the September report, due Thursday. Given the age of the data, its impact on the Fed’s policy stance is expected to be limited, leaving markets to navigate uncertainty with diminished guidance