Tariff Uncertainty and Retail Slowdown to Weigh on Coinbase’s Revenue, Says Oppenheimer Analyst

Coinbase (COIN) is facing a challenging outlook as ongoing tariff uncertainties from former President Donald Trump’s trade policies put a damper on retail cryptocurrency activity, analysts at Oppenheimer stated in a new report.

The investment bank has lowered its full-year trading volume forecast by 19%, now projecting $1.3 trillion, and has also reduced its first-quarter estimate to $380 billion, a 13% decrease from the previous quarter. The analysts cite a general decline in risk appetite as a significant factor behind the revision.

Despite signs of support for the crypto industry from U.S. policymakers—such as pro-crypto messages from the White House and Congress—Oppenheimer analysts noted that the market has not fully embraced these changes yet.

“Since the election, the U.S. has seen an unprecedented level of support for crypto, with initiatives from the administration, Congress, and regulators aimed at boosting blockchain investments,” said Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau. “However, the unpredictability of Trump’s tariff policies has sparked fears of a bear market, recession concerns, and a pullback in retail trading.”

Coinbase’s stock has dropped by 30% this year, underperforming both Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which are down by 10% and 8%, respectively. While this marks an improvement from the 86% drop in 2022, it underscores the platform’s sensitivity to broader economic trends.

Oppenheimer has also lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, cutting its price target for Coinbase’s stock to $279 from $388. The bank attributed this reduction to a likely sustained slowdown in retail participation due to ongoing policy uncertainties. Despite these concerns, Oppenheimer maintained its “outperform” rating on the stock, which slipped 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.

One positive for Coinbase is its dominant market share. In February, Coinbase captured 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading volume, outperforming competitors like Robinhood (HOOD). However, sustaining this lead will depend on whether the market can overcome tariff-related concerns and regain momentum.

Despite the near-term challenges, Oppenheimer remains optimistic about Coinbase’s long-term potential.

“With its position as a leader in the crypto space and opportunities in tokenization and payments, Coinbase has significant long-term prospects. If tariff concerns ease, we believe the stock could rebound strongly,” Lau concluded.