Bitcoin (BTC) remained resilient above the $100,000 mark on Sunday, continuing its uneventful multi-week sideways trading pattern even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated dramatically.

The odds of Iran’s leadership moving to block the vital Strait of Hormuz have surged in the aftermath of U.S. airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

As of press time, shares of the “Yes” side of the Polymarket-listed prediction contract “Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30?” were trading at 40 cents, implying a 40% probability—a sharp increase from 14% on Saturday. Meanwhile, the odds of a closure occurring by year-end rose to 52%, up from 33% the previous day.

Roughly 20 million barrels of oil transit daily through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for around 20% of global oil consumption, according to the Middle East Forum Observer. A potential closure could unleash a prolonged shock to oil prices.

Analysts at JPMorgan warned that shutting the Strait could send crude prices skyrocketing to $120–$130 per barrel. Such a surge, combined with ongoing trade tensions, could fuel stagflation—an economic scenario characterized by slowing growth and rising prices, posing significant risks for financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Despite the geopolitical jitters, the crypto market showed no immediate signs of panic. Bitcoin continued to trade firmly above $100,000, per CoinDesk data.

The tensions escalated after President Donald Trump confirmed Saturday night that U.S. forces conducted airstrikes, destroying three major Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. Trump described the operation as an effort to push “the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace.”