Carney Gains Ground on Poilievre as Canadian Election Race Narrows

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently took over leadership of the Liberal Party from Justin Trudeau, is rapidly closing the gap against Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre in prediction markets.

According to Polymarket data, Carney’s odds of winning the next federal election have surged to 49%, up from just 26% last month. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s chances have dropped to 51%, a significant decline from 72% in February.

While Canada’s next general election is officially scheduled for October 20, 2025, a snap election could be triggered if the minority Liberal government fails a confidence vote when Parliament reconvenes on March 24. Trudeau previously requested a prorogation of Parliament on January 6 as he announced plans to step down, setting the stage for Carney’s leadership.

This shift in prediction markets aligns with recent polling data. The Conservatives’ once-dominant lead has nearly evaporated, with the latest Nanos Research poll showing just a one-point difference between the two major parties—a sharp contrast to the 16-point lead the Conservatives held last month.

Economic Uncertainty Shifts the Political Landscape

Analysts attribute Carney’s rising odds to economic concerns, particularly trade tensions with the U.S. As Canada faces the threat of new tariffs, voters appear to be favoring Carney’s financial expertise and central banking background over Poilievre’s populist messaging.

Will Crypto Play a Role in the Election?

Despite Poilievre’s well-documented pro-Bitcoin stance—he personally holds a Canadian BTC ETF and has promoted blockchain innovation—cryptocurrency has yet to emerge as a major issue in the election campaign.

Carney, known for his skeptical view on crypto during his tenure as Bank of England governor, has yet to comment on digital assets in his new role as Liberal leader.

For now, economic policy and trade negotiations seem to be the defining issues, with crypto taking a backseat as Canada’s political landscape continues to shift.