As the final quarter of 2025 begins, a series of technical and macro indicators offer important guidance for crypto traders. Historical seasonality, major moving averages, cross-asset signals, and equity benchmarks are all shaping expectations for what lies ahead.

Q4 Seasonality Favors Bulls

Bitcoin and Ether historically perform strongly in the last quarter of the year. Since 2013, Bitcoin has delivered an average Q4 return of 85%, making it the most bullish stretch of the calendar, according to Coinglass. November stands out with a 46% average gain, while October typically sees a 21% rise.

Ether also tends to post gains in Q4, though its biggest seasonal strength has historically come in Q1. With BTC at $109,418 and ETH at $4,022, traders are closely eyeing whether historical seasonality can counter near-term weakness.

Bitcoin’s Key SMA Levels

Bitcoin has slipped 5% this week, raising concerns of a deeper pullback. Immediate focus is on August lows near $107,300, with the 200-day simple moving average at $104,200 as the next critical level.

Still, the 50-week SMA — now at $98,900 — remains a pivotal line in the sand. This moving average has consistently marked the end of corrective phases during the bull market that began in early 2023. Traders will be watching closely to see if history repeats.

XRP/BTC Compression Nears Resolution

XRP has gained 32% in 2025 but continues to lag Bitcoin on a relative basis. The XRP/BTC pair has remained stuck in a narrow sideways range since early 2021, building more than four years of compressed volatility.

Price action is now testing the upper boundary of this long consolidation. A breakout could unleash significant upside for XRP relative to BTC, as years of built-up pressure are released.

SMST ETF Signals Trouble for BTC & MSTR

The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST), designed to move inversely to MicroStrategy’s stock, is showing signs of strength. The fund has rallied to a five-month high of $35.65, carving out an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern — typically a bullish reversal signal.

If confirmed, the move could spell further downside for both MicroStrategy — which holds 639,835 BTC — and Bitcoin itself.

Dollar Index Breakout Watch

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded, forming a double bottom around 96.30. A move above 100.26 would confirm a breakout, potentially targeting 104.00 and adding pressure on risk assets like crypto.

However, failure below 96.00 would invalidate the pattern and could trigger renewed appetite for risk.

Nvidia: Risk Asset Bellwether

Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s most valuable public company, continues to hover at the top of a broadening channel traced from mid-2024 through April 2025. The rally has stalled at resistance since late July, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Any reversal lower in NVDA could spark a broader risk-off phase in global markets — with spillover into crypto.