River Data: Businesses Absorb Nearly 4x More Bitcoin Than Miners Produce

River’s latest research suggests corporate demand is soaking up bitcoin at a pace far above new supply, with funds and ETFs adding to the pressure.

The U.S.-based bitcoin services firm, which operates brokerage, mining, and research arms, released a Sankey-style flow chart on Aug. 25 showing daily bitcoin movements across different entities. According to River’s estimates, businesses now absorb about 1,755 BTC per day, compared with just 450 BTC mined daily following April 2024’s halving.

River defines “businesses” broadly, combining listed bitcoin treasury firms such as Strategy with traditional corporations holding BTC on balance sheets. Using public disclosures, custodial tagging, and internal heuristics, the firm mapped out the net inflows into business-controlled wallets.

With miners producing roughly 450 BTC per day — based on the 3.125 BTC block reward and ~144 blocks mined daily — companies appear to be acquiring coins at almost four times the rate new supply enters the market.

The flow map also highlights additional institutional inflows. Funds and ETFs take in about 1,430 BTC/day, while governments add around 39 BTC/day. Smaller inflows of about 411 BTC/day go to other entities, and an estimated 14 BTC/day are effectively lost to inaccessible wallets.

On the outflow side, individuals show a net –3,196 BTC/day. River cautions this should not be read as mass selling by retail investors. Instead, it reflects coins moving from wallets tagged as individual-owned into institutional or custodial categories.

The firm notes the data is not a precise census but an estimate derived from tagged addresses and filings. It also warns that net inflows don’t necessarily equate to spot buying — transfers could reflect OTC trades, custody reshuffling, or treasury management.

Even so, the takeaway is clear: when institutions absorb more bitcoin than miners produce, circulating supply tightens. While not a direct price forecast, River argues the trend shows institutions increasingly shaping bitcoin’s supply dynamics.