Strategy Bears Breach Key Support While Bitcoin Holds Above 50-Week SMA

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly-listed Bitcoin holder, has seen its bears pierce a critical bull market support, leaving Bitcoin (BTC) bears trailing behind.

The technical breakdown centers on Strategy’s share price falling below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a level that had consistently acted as a springboard since March 2023. Historically, this SMA marked the end of corrective pullbacks and sparked buying that propelled shares to new highs over more than two years. In recent weeks, however, bears have established a foothold beneath this key average, signaling waning buying pressure and potential further downside.

By contrast, Bitcoin’s 50-week SMA has remained intact, continuing to act as a reliable floor despite BTC pulling back from record highs above $124,000. BTC’s broader bullish trajectory appears intact, even as Strategy’s technical deterioration warrants attention.

Strategy holds 640,250 BTC—worth approximately $71.73 billion—according to Bitcointreasuries.net. Its accumulation has been a key driver of Bitcoin’s rally from $30,000 to $124,000 over the past two and a half years, making the stock’s current weakness a potential cautionary signal for BTC bulls.

Both Strategy and Bitcoin surged above their 50-week SMAs in early 2023, with the moving averages serving as consistent floors during corrections. That floor has now broken for Strategy, with momentum indicators like the weekly MACD histogram flashing red. Bitcoin’s MACD is also in the red, though it has yet to break its SMA.

As of writing, BTC was trading near $111,700, with its 50-week SMA at $101,872, per TradingView.