U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs are in the midst of their strongest inflow streak in months, but on-chain activity indicates that the rally is being met with aggressive profit-taking—conditions that have previously coincided with local market tops.

Funds tracking Bitcoin BTC have pulled in a combined $2.1 billion over eight consecutive sessions through April 23, according to SoSoValue. The run is the longest since October 2025, when a similar stretch of inflows helped propel bitcoin to its $126,000 all-time high.

Daily flows remain robust. April 23 alone saw roughly $223 million enter these products, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing the majority at about $167 million. Fidelity Investments’s FBTC, meanwhile, was the only major fund to post outflows, losing close to $17 million.

Bitcoin’s price action has tracked the inflows closely, climbing from around $68,000 to near $77,000—a roughly 12% advance. Since inception, spot ETFs have accumulated about $58 billion in net inflows, with total assets reaching $102 billion, or approximately 6.5% of bitcoin’s overall market value.

Still, ETF demand is only part of the broader picture.

According to Glassnode, bitcoin has recently reclaimed its “True Market Mean” near $78,100, a key on-chain level representing the average acquisition cost of actively traded supply. This is the first time the metric has been regained since mid-January and is typically associated with improving market structure.

Attention now shifts to the next threshold. The short-term holder cost basis sits around $80,100, marking the average entry price for investors who have accumulated bitcoin over the past 155 days. A sustained move above this level would push a majority of these holders into profit.

Historically, that transition has triggered selling. In prior instances this cycle, short-term holders have used rallies above their cost basis to exit positions, forming local tops. The same setup appears to be developing again.

On-chain data supports that view. Realized profits among short-term holders have surged to roughly $4.4 million per hour, well above the $1.5 million level that has preceded each local peak so far this year.

Meanwhile, derivatives markets show positioning remains skewed bearish. Funding rates on perpetual futures are still negative, meaning short sellers are paying longs—an indication that downside bets remain crowded. This dynamic recently contributed to a short squeeze that briefly pushed bitcoin toward $78,000 before geopolitical tensions tied to the Strait of Hormuz prompted a pullback.

A renewed squeeze, combined with continued ETF inflows and strengthening spot demand on offshore exchanges, could drive bitcoin toward the $80,000 mark. Whether that level holds, however, remains uncertain given the ongoing distribution from short-term holders.

A comparable pattern emerged in March, when a week-long inflow streak aligned with a local high. This time, flows have been heavily concentrated in IBIT, while other issuers have seen more mixed activity. While not identical, the setup shows clear similarities.

ETF demand remains a powerful tailwind—but it may also be facilitating exits. The market’s response around $80,000 will likely determine whether the rally can extend or stalls under renewed selling pressure.