Jefferies says stablecoin heavyweight Tether has rapidly emerged as one of the gold market’s most influential new buyers, playing a significant role in this year’s sharp rally.

The investment bank noted that gold’s recent surge—now up more than 50% this year and trading near $4,080 per ounce—cannot be fully explained by traditional drivers such as central bank demand or macro hedging. Instead, the bank points to Tether’s aggressive bullion accumulation as a key factor tightening supply. Attestation reports and on-chain movements show that the company has been steadily adding to its gold holdings in recent months.

Jefferies first became aware of Tether’s interest after the firm met with miners and royalty companies in Denver last fall. Investors told the bank at the time that Tether planned to purchase around 100 tons of gold in 2024. Statements from CEO Paolo Ardoino about expanding gold reserves, along with a sudden $1,000-per-ounce price spike, added further weight to the thesis.

In its latest estimate, Jefferies calculates Tether held at least 116 tons of gold by the end of the third quarter. Roughly 12 tons support its XAUt token (valued at about $1.57 billion), while around 104 tons back USDT (valued near $13.67 billion). That total makes Tether the world’s largest non-sovereign gold holder—on par with smaller central banks. XAUt currently has a market cap of roughly $1.5 billion, per CoinMarketCap.

The pace of accumulation is striking. Tether added around 26 tons in the third quarter alone, amounting to roughly 2% of global quarterly demand, Jefferies said. While not enough to overshadow central bank purchases, the buying likely tightened near-term supply and boosted bullish sentiment during a period of strong price momentum.

Jefferies expects Tether to continue building reserves as USDT expands and gold maintains its roughly 7% share of the company’s backing assets. With Ardoino forecasting $15 billion in profit for 2025, analysts estimate that allocating even half of that to gold could increase annual purchases by nearly 60 tons.

The report also notes that Tether’s upcoming GENIUS Act–compliant stablecoin, USAT, will not require gold reserves—leaving uncertainty about how it may affect long-term USDT-linked gold demand.

Beyond bullion purchases, Jefferies highlighted Tether’s growing involvement across the broader gold ecosystem. The firm has deployed more than $300 million into royalty and streaming companies this year, signaling an expanding strategy within the metals sector. Recent hires of two senior HSBC metals traders indicate that Tether’s push into gold is accelerating rather than slowing.