US–Iran Deal Sparks Risk Rally: Bitcoin Surges While Oil Slides Sharply

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz through a peace agreement has removed a major geopolitical risk premium from oil markets, while redirecting capital back into risk assets.

Bitcoin rose to a near two-week high after the US and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over energy supply disruptions that had weighed on global markets.

The cryptocurrency traded around $65,844 on Monday, up roughly 2.1% over the past 24 hours. It had briefly dipped to about $63,722 during early Asian hours before reversing sharply on the announcement, according to CoinDesk data.

This leaves Bitcoin roughly 9% above last week’s sub-$60,000 low, its weakest level since October 2024.

The broader crypto market also advanced. Ether gained 2.5% to $1,721, Solana climbed 3.6% to $71, and XRP rose 3.2% to $1.19. Hyperliquid’s HYPE led the sector with a 7.5% jump to nearly $65, while BNB and Dogecoin also posted modest gains above 1%.

In traditional markets, Brent crude fell more than 4% to around $83 per barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting prices since late February. Asian equities surged over 3%, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 nearing a record high. S&P 500 futures rose 1.2%, while the US dollar weakened against major currencies.

The agreement was first announced by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, followed by confirmations from US President Donald Trump and Iranian state media. Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on Friday after formal signing.

Although the full details of the agreement have not yet been published, its broad structure had already been anticipated by markets.

Bitcoin’s fall below $60,000 last week was driven by a dual macro shock: rising Iran tensions pushed oil higher, which reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy, ultimately weighing on risk assets including crypto. The reversal in oil prices has now undone that chain reaction.

However, one key headwind remains. Strategy’s disclosure that it sold 32 BTC to meet preferred dividend obligations raised concerns about weakening corporate demand, challenging the assumption of uninterrupted accumulation.

ETF outflows have also added pressure, and neither of these structural demand issues is resolved by geopolitical relief. The key question now is whether institutional inflows return with the risk-on mood, or whether Bitcoin’s rebound fades once the Iran-driven relief rally is fully priced in.

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