Since September, both MicroStrategy and U.S.-listed spot ETFs have acquired approximately 200,000 bitcoin each, contributing to a surge in bitcoin’s price following Donald Trump’s election victory on November 5. Bitcoin’s price climbed from $67,000 to around $100,000, accompanied by a remarkable rise in its total trading volume, which now exceeds $100 billion.

According to Checkonchain data, bitcoin futures trading volume reached a record high of around $120 billion on November 17, nearly doubling since the U.S. election. However, since then, futures trade volume has plateaued at approximately $100 billion. Spot trade volume has also experienced significant growth, rising from about $6 billion to $12 billion, while U.S. spot ETFs now trade around $4 billion daily.

Bitcoin has remained in a pivotal $100,000 trading range, fluctuating above and below this psychological level. A significant influence on this price movement is the substantial selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs), or those who have held their bitcoin for more than 155 days. Since September, LTHs have sold off 843,113 BTC, while short-term holders (STHs) — those who have held their bitcoin for less than 155 days — have accumulated 1,081,633 BTC. This translates to an average of 9,960 BTC sold daily by LTHs, while STHs have purchased an average of 12,432 BTC daily.

In comparison to the trading volumes of LTHs and STHs, institutional investors such as MicroStrategy and U.S. ETFs hold significant portions of bitcoin. MicroStrategy holds 423,650 BTC, representing more than 2% of the total supply. Meanwhile, U.S. ETFs collectively hold over 1 million BTC.

Since September, MicroStrategy has acquired 197,250 BTC, averaging 2,168 BTC per day, while U.S. ETFs have added 205,000 BTC, averaging 2,253 BTC daily. The total BTC holdings in U.S. ETFs have risen from 916,000 BTC to 1.12 million BTC.

For bitcoin to definitively break above the $100,000 mark, it will require either a slowdown in selling from long-term holders or a significant influx of new institutional players to absorb the sell pressure.