Bitcoin Stuck in $100K Range as Traders Weigh ETF Inflows, Profit-Taking, and Market Crosswinds

Bitcoin’s bull market has hit a pause button — and it’s been stuck there for a record-breaking 42 days.

Despite strong inflows into spot ETFs, rising stablecoin market caps, and favorable regulatory momentum in the U.S., the world’s biggest cryptocurrency has been trapped between $100,000 and $110,000, trading without clear direction.

The big question: Who’s selling enough BTC to neutralize the impact of booming ETF demand, especially amid anxiety about the U.S. fiscal outlook?

Shifting Market Dynamics

Alexander Blume, CEO at SEC-registered investment adviser Two Prime, said the market is caught between two camps: speculators cashing out and new long-term investors buying the dips.

“Given the geopolitical backdrop, it makes sense that leveraged traders are reducing exposure while long-term players accumulate,” Blume told CoinDesk. “Right now, we’re at an equilibrium between those groups.”

Glassnode data shows wallets that have held BTC for less than a year have stepped up their profit-taking. On Monday, these short-term holders accounted for 83% of all realized profits. Wallets holding for six to 12 months alone contributed $904 million in selling pressure — the second-highest total so far this year.

Long-term holders also took profits aggressively in May and early June. Glassnode reports that wallets holding BTC for more than 12 months realized $1.2 billion in profits at last week’s peak, although that figure dropped to $324 million more recently.

“Veteran BTC holders continue to sell into steady ETF demand, soaking up new inflows and preventing a breakout,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. “This has compressed volatility, but a big move is inevitable.”

Miners Join the Selling

Miners have also contributed to selling pressure, according to data from IntoTheBlock.

BTC balances in miner wallets have fallen from 1.94 million BTC at the end of May to about 1.91 million — a drop of roughly 30,000 BTC in just 20 days.

“Miners have to keep selling, and even some long-term holders sell gradually to manage USD liabilities,” said Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of crypto platform XBTO. “The key is whether those sales happen on high volume. A lot of the price moves are just noise and can reverse quickly.”

Even so, miners’ share of total spot market volume is now the smallest since 2022.

Accumulation Slows as Alternatives Tempt Investors

Large investors (“whales”) and smaller holders were rapidly accumulating BTC during its surge from April lows near $75,000. But that trend has stalled since prices crossed into six-figure territory.

“Accumulation weakened once BTC broke above $100K,” said Ben Lilly, co-founder of Jlabs Digital and Deploy.finance. “Funding rates were rising fast, and delta-neutral trades offering 15-30% APY became attractive enough for traders to reduce directional bets.”

Delta-neutral strategies involve selling perpetual futures while simultaneously buying spot BTC. Traders pocket the price difference (the funding premium) while staying hedged against volatility.

Jimmy Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said bitcoin’s maturation into a more stable asset has curbed expectations of sky-high returns, prompting some investors to diversify.

“People aren’t counting on 10x or 100x returns anymore,” Yang told CoinDesk. “So some long-term holders are reallocating part of their BTC into other assets like equities, gold, or private placements. It makes sense from a portfolio standpoint.”

What Comes Next for BTC?

Yang said bitcoin is likely to continue trading in step with equities and overall risk sentiment, especially as summer historically brings lower trading volumes.

“Both BTC and equities are hovering near all-time highs. If stocks break higher, BTC should follow. But the summer lull will probably keep things quiet for now,” Yang said.

Blume noted that a pullback wouldn’t be surprising after bitcoin’s rapid climb from $75,000 to over $100,000 in just weeks.

“It’s natural for the market to cool off a bit after such a big move,” Blume said. “It’s telling that recent dips have been shallow — a sign of strength for the next leg higher.”

Thielen identified key levels for traders to watch: support at $102,000 and resistance around $106,000.