Most of bitcoin’s invested supply sits above current prices, leaving the market vulnerable if key support levels fail.

Checkonchain data shows that 63% of all bitcoin BTC $82,703.53 wealth has a cost basis above $88,000, meaning the majority of capital entered the market at higher prices. Invested wealth measures the total value deployed when coins last moved on-chain, while cost basis reflects the average acquisition price.

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) highlights how much capital is currently underwater, showing where coins last transacted. Bitcoin has traded between $80,000 and $90,000 since November, with tens of billions of dollars concentrated between $85,000 and $90,000. A drop below $85,000 could trigger stronger selling, as long-term holders are already selling at the fastest pace in six months.

Supply between $70,000 and $80,000 is limited, meaning a breach of $80,000 — last tested in November — could accelerate a move toward $70,000.

Bitcoin is on track to finish January largely unchanged, missing the typical relief rally after three months of declines. Historically, February has averaged gains around 13%, but whether that trend repeats may depend on how the market absorbs the current overhang of underwater supply.