Geopolitical strains and a more cautious backdrop in U.S. equities are keeping risk appetite subdued, with some analysts warning that markets may need to revisit their 2024 troughs before a more sustainable recovery takes shape.

Cryptocurrencies edged higher in Asian trading on Friday, as bitcoin rebounded toward $68,000 after a turbulent stretch that unsettled broader risk markets.

The gains were relatively broad-based. XRP, Solana’s SOL, DOGE and Cardano’s ADA rose by as much as 2%, while ether underperformed, slipping modestly and holding below $2,000. Traders appear to be treating that level as key support rather than a breakout trigger.

The advance had the feel of a relief bounce rather than a decisive trend reversal. In recent weeks, price action has been marked by sharp swings: rallies draw in dip buyers, only for supply to emerge near levels where sidelined investors can exit at reduced losses.

Still, this week’s rebounds have appeared incrementally firmer, hinting that forced selling pressure may be waning — even if strong, conviction-driven inflows have yet to return.

Macro uncertainty and geopolitical developments continue to shape sentiment. Gold steadied near $5,000 per ounce after consecutive sessions of gains, as investors factored in rising Middle East tensions.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that negotiations over a potential nuclear deal with Iran would be given 10 to 15 days, while reports pointed to an increased U.S. military presence in the region. The mix has reinforced demand for safe havens and made it more difficult for risk assets to build sustained upside momentum.

Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, said traders are recalibrating following the release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes, which carried a more hawkish tone, even if further rate hikes are not the base-case scenario.

“The key takeaway isn’t that hikes are imminent,” Cai said, “but that policymakers have clearly kept the option open if inflation does not continue to cool, effectively raising the bar for near-term easing.”

That repricing has supported the dollar and tightened financial conditions at the margin, she added, a shift reflected in softer equities and renewed demand for cash-like instruments and short-duration Treasuries.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, struck a cautious note on the broader outlook. Given recent market dynamics and the defensive tilt in U.S. stocks, he said the likelihood of a retest of local lows — levels last seen in the second half of 2024 — has increased.

On ether, Kuptsikevich observed that the token remains supported by a long-term trendline dating back to 2020, converging around the $2,000 area. However, a confirmed breakdown would likely require a decisive move below recent lows near $1,500.

On-chain indicators suggest potential overhead supply. According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin inflows from large holders to Binance have reached record levels, a pattern that can precede heavier spot selling.

Research firm K33 has drawn comparisons between current conditions and the later stages of the 2022 bear market, which ultimately transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase.

For now, the market appears capable of staging rebounds, but struggles to convert them into a sustained uptrend. Until spot demand convincingly outweighs supply clustered around key psychological levels, rallies may continue to face resistance.