XRP gained more than 45% in Q3 as U.S. spot XRP ETFs brought in about $307.9 million. Despite cumulative ETF inflows approaching $1.8 billion, XRP entered October near $1.50 after repeatedly failing to move beyond $1.70. The strong inflow figures have yet to translate into a sustained higher price level.

The price action suggests that ETF demand is being absorbed by sellers as XRP moves higher. Buyers continue to provide support, but sellers are meeting those bids with enough supply to keep the token around $1.50 instead of allowing a decisive move through resistance.

Seven-day altcoin inflow transactions on exchanges reportedly reached their highest level since October 2025. CryptoQuant said the increase was spread across the market rather than being concentrated in a small number of large wallets.

Exchange deposits do not necessarily indicate that tokens have been sold. However, moving XRP onto exchanges increases the amount that could potentially become available for sale, making the transfers relevant when evaluating market supply. Following a quarterly gain of more than 45%, some holders may have an incentive to take profits near earlier highs, even as ETF investors continue adding exposure.

This additional supply can absorb new demand without immediately pushing XRP lower. It can also delay a breakout until fewer holders are willing to sell into rallies. Broader exchange inventories and other supply metrics can provide context for the market, but they cannot determine which participants sold during a particular price advance.

XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows on September 29 and 30 following stronger buying earlier in the month. While two sessions without net flows do not change the broader quarterly trend, they show that incremental demand can fluctuate. Cumulative inflows also do not reveal whether buyers are currently strong enough to absorb every new wave of XRP supply.

$1.54–$1.70 Becomes the Key XRP Price Test

The first level bulls need to clear is an hourly close above $1.54, which the primary report identifies as an initial breakout signal. A move above that threshold could create room for an approximately 10% advance toward $1.70, although reaching that level would not necessarily mean the broader supply overhang has been cleared.

XRP has repeatedly struggled to hold gains in the mid-$1.50s, while late-September moves above $1.60 eventually reversed. The late-August swing high around $1.70 remains the more significant resistance area. A sustained break above it would suggest that buying pressure is absorbing enough supply to change the market structure rather than generating another temporary rally.

On the downside, $1.48–$1.50 is the first support zone to monitor, close to XRP’s starting level for October. Another rejection followed by a loss of this area could put the recent base under pressure. Derivatives positioning and leverage may influence the way XRP moves, although they cannot identify the spot-market sellers responsible for individual transactions.

These levels provide a framework for assessing XRP’s current market structure without making a forecast.

What Could Confirm an XRP Breakout?

If XRP posts an hourly close above $1.54 and maintains momentum through the mid-$1.50s, the late-August high near $1.70 would become the next major test. Reclaiming that area and holding above it would indicate that ETF and spot-market demand is absorbing enough supply to overcome the selling that has capped previous rallies.

Another rejection followed by a drop below $1.48–$1.50 would point to continued seller availability despite fund demand. That would not prove ETF investors have stopped buying or reveal which participants are selling. It would instead show that existing demand has not yet been sufficient to absorb the available XRP at higher prices.

Ripple’s connection to XRP does not change the immediate technical setup. The central question is whether buyers can absorb the supply emerging around the levels where previous rallies failed. Until XRP holds above $1.70, cumulative ETF inflows remain a demand indicator rather than confirmation of a pending breakout.