XRP’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios—a key measure of holder profitability—have dropped to roughly -45% and -47%, marking the lowest levels on record, according to Santiment. Some traders see such extreme losses as a contrarian signal.

On-chain data shows XRP holders are, on average, deeper in the red than ever before, a condition often associated with potential market bottoms.

The signal comes from the MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio, which compares XRP’s current price to the average price at which tokens last moved.

When the ratio falls below zero, it indicates that the typical holder is at a loss. With both short-term and long-term MVRV deeply negative, recent buyers and long-term holders alike are sitting on substantial unrealized losses.

Santiment said these combined readings are the lowest in XRP’s history.

Such conditions typically signal capitulation, where investors endure steep losses and weaker hands exit positions, transferring coins to buyers willing to accumulate at lower prices. The firm described the setup as a risk-reward opportunity rather than a clear bottom.

“The best opportunities often emerge when sentiment is at its weakest,” Santiment noted, adding that much of the downside may already be priced in, while cautioning that prices could still fall if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Despite these depressed readings, XRP has risen about 8% over the past week to around $1.14, according to CoinDesk data, making it one of the stronger-performing major tokens.

This aligns with a broader trend observed in on-chain data, where large bitcoin holders continue accumulating even as ETF outflows hit records—a pattern often linked to late-stage sell-offs and accumulation phases near cycle lows.

However, this does not confirm a bottom. MVRV reflects how stretched losses are, not when the market will reverse, and such conditions can persist while prices move sideways or lower.

What the data does suggest is that selling pressure from underwater holders may be largely exhausted, leaving the next move dependent on whether sustained buying demand emerges.