Traders are positioning for a potentially decisive week as hopes build for a Trump–Xi trade breakthrough and a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve — though risks tied to rare-earth restrictions and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could still derail the “Uptober” rally.

Bitcoin hovered around $114,000 and Ethereum near $4,120 early Tuesday in Hong Kong, as markets braced for a convergence of major catalysts: U.S.–China diplomacy, a potential Fed policy shift, and a heavy lineup of Big Tech earnings.

Prediction markets on Polymarket reflect rising optimism, pricing in a 92% chance that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff agreement by November 10, following what were described as constructive talks over the weekend in Malaysia.

The framework — expected to be formalized when Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping at Thursday’s APEC summit in Seoul — has buoyed sentiment across risk assets. Bitcoin briefly topped $116,200 on Sunday, while crypto-linked equities such as Hut 8, CleanSpark, and IREN advanced between 2–3%.

Still, optimism remains tempered. A separate Polymarket market assigns only a 36% probability that China will lift its rare-earth export ban by year-end, signaling expectations for tactical cooperation on trade but ongoing competition over strategic materials.

The contrast between those odds reflects traders’ belief that any progress from Thursday’s summit may deliver short-term political wins rather than a deeper realignment in U.S.–China relations.

In a note to clients, Singapore-based QCP Capital said the Trump–Xi outcome “may shape crypto’s near-term direction even more than Wednesday’s Fed decision.” The firm highlighted growing speculation that the Fed could soon end its three-year quantitative tightening program, a move that would restore liquidity and potentially reinvigorate risk assets.

“Any indication that such a shift is imminent would re-anchor liquidity expectations,” QCP wrote.

For now, Bitcoin remains flat for the month, threatening to snap its seven-year streak of positive Octobers — the so-called ‘Uptober’ trend.

QCP also noted that the 26-day U.S. government shutdown is muddying the Fed’s data-dependent outlook by restricting key economic releases, while investors await earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google for signals on consumer strength.

In derivatives markets, BTC and ETH risk reversals have normalized after weeks of defensive positioning, indicating reduced demand for downside protection.

Still, QCP cautioned that a clear bullish continuation is unlikely unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims $116,000 to close the month. With politics, monetary policy, and liquidity all colliding, markets face a volatile week that could either extend or end “Uptober’s” winning streak.

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Market Movement

• BTC: Bitcoin climbed to $116,200 over the weekend before retreating to $114,000, consolidating near cycle highs as traders await clarity from the Trump–Xi summit and the Fed’s next move.
• ETH: Ethereum traded steadily around $4,120, echoing Bitcoin’s consolidation as investors weighed macro drivers and liquidity expectations.
• Gold: Gold edged up to $4,021 an ounce after dipping below $4,000 on Monday, as optimism over trade progress and rising yields curbed haven demand.
• Nikkei 225: Asian equities slipped Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.38% and Topix lower by 0.49%, ahead of Trump’s first meeting with newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.