CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that the company is preparing for softer market conditions by scaling back purchases and increasing its USD reserves — even as traders continue to price in a strategy reminiscent of reflexive accumulation.

A new report from CryptoQuant argues that Strategy is quietly bracing for a multi-month BTC downturn. That view stands in contrast to prediction-market sentiment, where bettors remain convinced the company will continue behaving like it did during 2021’s aggressive accumulation phase.

In its weekly report, CryptoQuant notes that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-focused firm is shifting from rapid BTC acquisition to a more defensive balance-sheet posture. The firm has carved out a dedicated USD buffer and introduced language acknowledging the possibility of hedging or even selling should market stress intensify.

Prediction markets, however, are largely ignoring this shift. Polymarket odds still assign only marginal probability to a bitcoin sale in the first quarter, while expectations for regular small buys remain elevated. Traders continue to view routine MSTR purchases as highly likely, even as the average size of those buys continues to shrink.

The market currently gives just a 40%–45% chance of any purchase above 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant suggests that these smaller, cosmetic additions — down more than 90% in monthly volume compared to last year — are becoming the company’s new normal. These buys help maintain brand consistency but have little impact on supply or regional liquidity.

Strategy’s average purchase size has dropped sharply, from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year. With DAT inflows now at their lowest level since mid-June, bitcoin treasury companies are no longer absorbing meaningful market supply.

Together, weaker treasury demand, slowing DAT flows, and a more cautious MSTR point to a different supply dynamic entering 2026. Whether bitcoin can regain upward momentum will depend on new sources of demand emerging to replace the corporate accumulation that dominated the previous cycle.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin rebounded from a morning dip to $91,800 and stabilized near $93,000. Its recent 10% two-day rally is now meeting resistance near the 2025 yearly open at around $93,400.

ETH: Ether climbed back above $3,100, touching a two-week high of nearly $3,200 after gaining 3.5% on the day.

Gold: Gold eased slightly to just above $4,200 as traders stayed cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data. Rising tensions in Ukraine and expectations of a weaker dollar could set the stage for a rebound.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed Thursday, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix gained roughly 1.3% after upbeat U.S. jobs data boosted Wall Street and reinforced hopes for a Fed rate cut next week.