Bitcoin outperforms gold and equities in post-shock recoveries, Mercado Bitcoin finds

Bitcoin has consistently delivered stronger returns than gold and equities in the aftermath of major global shocks, according to a new study by Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.

The research, led by Rony Szuster, analyzed 60-day periods following significant economic and geopolitical events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. tariff escalations. In each case, Bitcoin outperformed both gold and the S&P 500.

One example highlighted in the report followed the announcement of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April last year. Over the subsequent two months, Bitcoin gained 24%, compared with an 8% rise in gold and a 4% increase in the S&P 500.

A similar trend emerged during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020, when Bitcoin climbed 21% in the following 60 days, again surpassing traditional assets.

Szuster cautioned that short-term market reactions during crises can be misleading. In the immediate aftermath of a shock, investors often sell assets to raise liquidity or reduce exposure, which can temporarily weigh on prices across all asset classes, including those typically viewed as safe havens.

Despite this initial volatility, Bitcoin has consistently rebounded and gone on to outperform during the recovery phase, the study found.

That pattern appears to be repeating amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. According to Szuster, Bitcoin is currently the only one of the three assets in positive territory during the latest bout of market stress.

Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has risen more than 2.2%, moving from around $65,800 to approximately $67,300. In contrast, gold has declined about 11%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 4.4%, marking its steepest monthly drop since 2022.

Szuster added that, despite its volatility, Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset of the past decade, reinforcing its growing role in diversified portfolios.