Tom Lee of Fundstrat is calling a bottom in equities, arguing the Iran ceasefire has triggered a key shift in market dynamics—one that could extend to bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), and other risk assets.

In a CNBC appearance, Lee said a break above the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average at 6,617 would signal a “decisive move higher.” That level has already been surpassed, with futures trading near 6,820, reinforcing his bullish stance.

His view is grounded in how markets handled recent stress. Even as geopolitical tensions escalated and oil surged from $87 to $116 between mid-March and early April, the S&P 500 climbed from 6,300 to 6,600. The ability of equities to rise in worsening conditions suggests that downside risks had largely been priced in.

The ceasefire, Lee argues, marks a “positive rate-of-change” inflection. The shift from escalation to de-escalation triggered a sharp repricing across markets: equities rallied 2.5%, oil dropped about 15%, and volatility fell below 20—all within a single session.

Still, the outlook is far from settled.

Lee’s firm has significant exposure to crypto, including a recent purchase of more than 71,000 ETH, tying its positioning to a bullish outcome.

At the same time, early signs suggest the ceasefire may not hold. Iranian officials have flagged breaches in the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, and oil prices have already bounced back toward $97 after their initial decline.

If tensions re-escalate, the setup could quickly reverse. Higher oil prices would revive inflation concerns, potentially weighing on equities and dragging crypto markets lower.

For now, markets are leaning toward Lee’s “bottom is in” narrative. But with the ceasefire under pressure, that call faces an immediate and high-stakes test.