Here’s another rewritten version:

The weekend peace agreement provided the macro catalyst global markets had been anticipating, though crypto traders remain hesitant to fully trust geopolitical headlines.

The U.S.–Iran deal announced over the weekend broadly improved risk sentiment across global assets.

Oil prices dropped more than 4% on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, while copper strengthened. Equity markets rallied sharply, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index up 3% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaching a new record high.

Crypto markets, by contrast, moved more cautiously. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) was largely flat since midnight UTC, though still up 2.4% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin hovered just below $66,000 with limited intraday movement after a 3.4% weekend gain. Ether followed a similar pattern, while smaller altcoins showed relative strength, with the CoinDesk 80 Index rising about 1.5%.

The muted response reflects ongoing skepticism in crypto toward geopolitically driven rallies. Prior ceasefire attempts have repeatedly failed—one in April collapsed and another in early June was broken by U.S. strikes—each time erasing earlier gains. As a result, traders are reluctant to fully price in the latest agreement ahead of its formal signing.

Although markets have steadied after the early June selloff, sentiment remains split. Some on-chain signals suggest selling pressure may be fading, while flow data indicates that strong new demand has not yet returned. Both conditions can still be true at this stage of the cycle.

Meanwhile, crypto is facing competition for speculative capital. SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO surged 19% on its first day, with ARK Invest, led by long-time Bitcoin advocate Cathie Wood, among the key institutional participants.

Upcoming IPOs from companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic further highlight how investor attention is shifting toward AI and equity markets, drawing liquidity away from digital assets.

Derivatives

Bitcoin derivatives positioning strengthened over the week. Open interest rose to $17.4 billion, up around 7% week-on-week, while the three-month annualized basis edged higher to 3.0% from 2.8%.

Funding rates, however, remained subdued, ranging from neutral to roughly -4% annualized across major venues, indicating limited appetite for leveraged long exposure.

The rise in open interest alongside a firmer basis suggests incremental institutional participation, but weak funding signals a lack of aggressive directional positioning.

Options markets show a mixed but stable setup. The 24-hour put/call skew leaned toward puts (around 25/75), while volatility indicators remain subdued. Deribit’s DVOL index slipped to 39, down 3.4% on the day and near multi-year lows, and the implied volatility curve stays in contango rather than backwardation. This suggests selective hedging rather than widespread fear.

Coinglass data showed $343 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 27% and shorts 73%. Bitcoin and Ethereum led with $136 million and $60 million in liquidations respectively.

Binance positioning highlights $66,100 as a key level to watch on any upward move.

Token Talk

Decentralized AI tokens surged after the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to restrict foreign access to its most advanced models.

Venice (VVV) rose about 14% to $16.37, with trading volume jumping nearly 200% to around $130 million, according to CoinGecko. Morpheus (MOR) gained roughly 21% to $2.28.

Anthropic said the Commerce Department required restrictions on its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models under export-control rules. The company temporarily disabled both models globally while keeping others active, describing the issue as a narrow compliance matter and saying it is working to resolve the misunderstanding.

Supporters of decentralized AI quickly framed the development as validation of their thesis. Venice founder Erik Voorhees emphasized the need for permissionless AI, while Morpheus supporters highlighted it as evidence of censorship resistance.

Venice offers access to open-source models via its VVV token, while Morpheus incentivizes contributors of compute and development through MOR.

However, the rally appears largely narrative-driven rather than fundamentals-based. MOR’s 21% move came on less than $300,000 in trading volume, and both projects rely on open-source models that are less capable than Anthropic’s restricted systems.

Overall, the move was driven more by narrative momentum than by underlying technological progress.