Bitcoin held steady near $65,000 despite a sharp decline across Nvidia and other AI-linked technology stocks. Analysts say this week’s Federal Reserve decision could determine whether BTC finally breaks out of its extended trading range or heads back toward June’s lows.

The crypto market displayed notable resilience on Monday, with Bitcoin and other major digital assets holding firm despite weakness in AI-related equities.

BTC traded around $65,000, up roughly 4% from Friday, while Ethereum climbed to its highest level in nearly two months. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s 4.8% decline pressured AI-focused stocks, though the Nasdaq remained mostly unchanged as gains from technology giants including Apple, Microsoft, and Google helped offset the broader weakness.

That resilience is now facing a major market test.

With the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, key U.S. inflation readings, and quarterly results from major technology companies all scheduled this week, analysts believe the outcome could determine whether Bitcoin escapes its months-long consolidation phase or retreats toward the levels seen during June’s selloff.

Technical Indicators Show Growing Optimism

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said crypto’s ability to withstand volatility in traditional markets is an encouraging sign.

He suggested that recent price action supports the idea that digital assets may be beginning to decouple, at least partially, from broader risk markets.

Kruger said Bitcoin needs to break above $67,300 to confirm a breakout from the multi-week range that has limited upside since June. A move beyond that level could open the door for additional gains, while Ethereum faces a similar challenge around the $2,000 mark.

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also pointed to Ethereum’s stronger performance against Bitcoin as a positive development. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin, reached a three-month high on Monday.

Analysts Question the Strength of the Recovery

Despite Bitcoin’s recent stability, some analysts remain cautious about whether the move can develop into a sustained rally.

Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the recovery has not been supported by the type of strong demand typically seen before major breakouts.

He noted that the market appears to be maintaining its current range rather than building the momentum required for a decisive move higher.

Sondergaard’s base-case outlook remains a possible decline toward the $52,000–$58,000 range if market conditions fail to improve.

Although nearly 9,000 BTC moved off exchanges over the past week, Bitcoin futures open interest has declined even as prices increased. This suggests traders may be reducing risk rather than increasing bullish positions. Order-book activity also continues to show signs of selling pressure.

Sondergaard said the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and its messaging afterward will likely influence the direction of risk assets on Wednesday. Investors will also track Thursday’s core PCE inflation data, second-quarter GDP figures, earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, as well as Friday’s estimated $13 billion–$14 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry.

For Nansen to adopt a more bullish outlook, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows into exchanges, continued spot Bitcoin ETF demand, and evidence that long-term holders have stopped selling at losses.

Until those signals appear, Sondergaard views Bitcoin’s latest rebound as a short-term positioning recovery rather than the beginning of a confirmed long-term uptrend.