Lutnick Signals Possible Tariff Compromise, Polymarket Odds Shift Sharply

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that President Donald Trump is open to negotiating tariffs on Canadian imports, though he stopped short of suggesting an outright reversal.

Following Lutnick’s comments on Fox Business, traders on Polymarket adjusted their expectations, pricing in a 70% chance that the U.S.-Canada trade standoff will be resolved by May—up 20% in just a few hours.

The 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods took effect Tuesday morning, justified by the administration as a crackdown on fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. However, Lutnick’s afternoon remarks suggested that some flexibility might be on the table.

“I think [Trump is] going to work something out with them,” Lutnick said. “It’s not going to be a pause, none of that pause stuff, but I think he’s going to figure out: you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle someway, and we’re going to probably announce that tomorrow.”

His statement helped fuel a market rebound, with bitcoin (BTC) rising 1.5% to trade above $87,000, according to CoinDesk Indices. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which tracks the largest digital assets, gained 2% in response.