Bitcoin May See True Capitulation at $65K, Analyst James Check Says, with Strong Support Around $50K

What is the true bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)?

While it’s possible that Bitcoin has already reached its lowest point, on-chain analyst James Check believes that the real bottom may not come until after a significant capitulation event unfolds.

Check points to the $65,000 level as the “true market mean,” where the average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors lies. He suggests that this is where Bitcoin could experience widespread investor pain, with many short-term holders facing unrealized losses. Even long-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for five years—could find themselves underwater at this price. Interestingly, this price range is close to the cost basis used by Michael Saylor in his strategy, around $67,500.

Post-Capitulation and Long-Term Support

While Check foresees potential declines if Bitcoin hits the $65,000 mark, he believes the $49,000-$50,000 area will provide strong long-term support. This range aligns with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the $1 trillion market cap milestone for the cryptocurrency. Check sees a drop to $40,000 as highly unlikely unless a global recession occurs.

Check also highlighted the lengthy “chopsolidation” phase that took place in 2024, where Bitcoin traded within a broad range between $50K and $70K. He views this period as having built a solid support base, which could help prevent further price declines.