Semler Scientific’s Market Cap Falls Below Bitcoin Holdings Amid Strategy Scrutiny

Semler Scientific’s (SMLR) bold pivot into a bitcoin treasury strategy has taken a hit, with the company’s market capitalization now sitting below the value of its BTC holdings.

The medical technology firm, which began accumulating bitcoin in mid-2024, has seen its stock price tumble nearly 50% so far in 2025. Shares have returned to levels seen shortly after the company first embraced its crypto strategy, raising fresh questions about the sustainability of its bitcoin-centric approach.

As of the latest figures, Semler holds approximately 4,449 BTC, valued at around $491 million. Yet, the company’s market cap based on its basic share count has dropped to just $420 million, pushing its multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) down to 0.859x, according to data from Strategy-Tracker.

This mNAV metric is critical. Semler’s current model relies heavily on raising capital through stock issuance to fund further bitcoin purchases. But to make such a strategy accretive for existing shareholders, the company’s shares need to trade at a premium to NAV. With shares now at a discount, issuing new stock would dilute shareholder value without enhancing the company’s bitcoin position — effectively putting the brakes on new BTC accumulation under its current plan.

Despite the decline, not everyone is bearish. Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat, has included Semler Scientific in his firm’s “Granny Shot” research portfolio — a collection of offbeat or contrarian picks named after the unconventional basketball free-throw style. Lee sees potential value in the disconnect between Semler’s BTC holdings and its market valuation, suggesting the stock could appeal to investors looking for asymmetric opportunities in the bitcoin treasury theme.