Corporate America’s recession anxiety has all but disappeared, with the term “recession” barely surfacing in second-quarter earnings calls — a stark reversal from earlier this year.

According to FactSet data, just 16 S&P 500 companies referenced a recession during Q2 earnings calls, a sharp drop from 124 in the first quarter and well below the 10-year average of 61. The decline marks the lowest quarterly total since Q4 2021, despite growing concerns over the economic impact of newly imposed trade tariffs.

“Recession was uttered just 16 times so far on earnings calls this quarter (4%), down from 124 in Q1 and the 10-yr average of 61,” noted Neil Sethi, managing partner at Sethi Associates, in a post on X, citing FactSet. “After Q4 ’24, it’s the least of any quarter since Q4 ’21.”

Tariffs Climb, But Fear Doesn’t Follow

The dramatic shift in corporate tone comes amid rising protectionist trade policy under President Donald Trump. The administration recently unveiled a new wave of sweeping tariffs — in addition to those announced in April — aimed at reviving U.S. manufacturing. The moves have pushed the average U.S. tariff rate to 20.1%, the highest sustained level since the 1910s, according to estimates from the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund.

Yet markets and executives appear largely unfazed. Many corporate leaders may be operating under the belief that the current tariffs will be softened through negotiations, rather than becoming a permanent drag on economic activity.

Markets Rally, Bitcoin Surges

Investor sentiment has followed suit. The S&P 500 is up 28% since its April lows, reflecting growing optimism about corporate resilience and broader economic recovery. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has jumped 62% over the same period, climbing from around $75,000 to $122,000, according to CoinDesk data.

JPMorgan analysts note that traders are focusing on strong earnings results and signs of stabilization following an interim economic slowdown — rather than pricing in a prolonged downturn.

Earnings Season Delivers

With over 80% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 results, more than 80% have exceeded earnings expectations, while 79% have topped revenue forecasts — the strongest performance seen in four years.

Despite mounting macroeconomic headwinds, the latest data suggests that both companies and markets are betting on resilience — not recession.