Bitcoin’s 180-Day Call-Put Skew Hits Two-Year Low, Signaling Growing Bearish Sentiment Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Key Bitcoin (BTC) indicators are pointing toward a potential shift into a bearish market phase as traders brace for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.

One of the most telling signals comes from the 180-day call-put skew on Deribit — the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest. Currently, this skew stands at -0.42, the lowest level since June 2023, according to data from Amberdata. A negative call-put skew indicates that demand for protective put options outweighs interest in call options, reflecting increased market caution or bearish sentiment over the medium term.

“BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift,” noted Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, via social media.

This development marks a notable change after two years of predominantly positive skew values, which indicated a preference for bullish call options. Despite Bitcoin pulling back only about 8% from recent all-time highs above $124,000, long-term sentiment has clearly shifted bearish.

Lakha explained that this price correction has triggered a surge in put option buying:
“BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.”

Powell’s Speech and Market Expectations

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his keynote at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders anticipate that Powell will signal the beginning of interest rate cuts as early as September.

Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard commented,
“At this stage, the market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers exactly what’s anticipated, crypto could see sideways to slightly bearish action — a classic ‘sell the news’ scenario. Conversely, if the Fed signals a deeper or faster rate-cutting cycle, it could reignite risk appetite and spark a new bullish phase in crypto.”

Wall Street Traders Also Seek Downside Protection

This cautious stance is mirrored in traditional markets, where investors are buying put options on major technology ETFs as a hedge against potential sell-offs.

“Traders are buying ‘disaster’ puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index,” said Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, in an interview with Bloomberg.

Guppy Multiple Moving Average Points to Bearish Momentum

Another technical warning sign is emerging from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator, a tool developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy to detect trend reversals and assess momentum by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages.

Bitcoin’s price recently slipped below the GMMA bands, signaling weakening bullish control and suggesting a possible bearish regime. Such a crossover is often viewed as a precursor to accelerating downside momentum.

Additional technical indicators, including the MACD histogram, are also aligning with this view, pointing to strengthening bearish momentum in the near term.

In summary, Bitcoin’s options market and technical charts are flashing caution signals ahead of a pivotal Fed speech, with traders positioning defensively amid rising uncertainty.