Bitcoin Struggles Below $115K as ETF Outflows and Macro Pressures Weigh on Market

Bitcoin hovered near $113,700 on Thursday, failing to reclaim the $115,000 level as resistance from its 50-day moving average halted a brief rally attempt.

The total crypto market cap inched up 1% to $3.86 trillion, but analysts viewed the move as a temporary rebound rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

“Weakness in the tech sector continues to spill over into digital assets,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Bitcoin’s inability to break above $115K only underscores the fragility of the current market structure.”

ETF flows reinforced the cautious tone. According to SoSoValue, bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $523 million on Monday, $311 million on Wednesday, and $192 million on Thursday — reversing last week’s inflows. Ether ETFs were also hit, shedding over $500 million in the same timeframe.

Kronos Research attributed the selloff to profit-taking and cascading liquidations following BTC’s recent record highs earlier in August.

Headlines have also dented sentiment. The SEC opened an investigation into Alt5 Sigma following its $1.5 billion merger with World Liberty Financial — a firm with ties to U.S. President Donald Trump.

On-chain signals for Ethereum are weakening. Active addresses have declined by 28% since July 30, suggesting a retreat in retail activity. ETH traded at $4,289 on Thursday, up 0.4% intraday but still down over 7% from its recent peak.

XRP and Solana mirrored the broader market trend, falling to $2.87 and $183 respectively. Both are down more than 6% over the past week. While some traders expect a Fed pivot could spark a short-term rally, most agree that without fresh inflows, upside momentum may remain capped.

In the derivatives space, hedging activity intensified. The 30-day delta skew on bitcoin options spiked to 12% this week — the highest in four months — signaling a sharp rise in demand for downside protection.

“Macro headwinds are the primary drag on Bitcoin right now,” said Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler. “There are no major bearish developments specific to crypto, but equity markets are clearly under pressure, and that’s spilling over into digital assets.”

Lienkha added that it remains uncertain whether the current positioning reflects short-term hedging ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech or a broader turn in market structure. “We may be nearing the late stage of this bullish trend,” he said. “But it’s unclear if this is a deeper reversal or just another correction en route to a final top.”

Despite the near-term pullback, some strategists remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Bitwise said allocations from U.S. pension funds could help drive BTC to $200,000 by year-end — potentially eclipsing the impact of spot ETF approvals. Initial flows could begin as soon as autumn, the firm noted.

For now, markets are watching closely as Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday. A dovish tone could provide relief to risk assets, while any signal of hesitation around rate cuts could deepen the current market slide — which has already knocked 9% off Bitcoin’s highs.