Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Markets Brace for Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Bitcoin hovered near $116,700 early Thursday, holding critical support at $112,500 — the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its April-July rally — as investors tread cautiously ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

This level previously acted as a springboard for a sharp rebound in July, and traders are eyeing a potential repeat should Powell strike a dovish tone, signaling deeper or earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with one more likely before year-end.

Despite the pivotal moment, bitcoin’s rebound has remained muted, a reflection of broader risk aversion across crypto and traditional markets. Options data suggests the market is pricing in a modest ±2% move around Powell’s speech, with derivatives traders increasingly positioning for downside protection.

ETH, Futures, and Options Positioning

Ethereum (ETH) may be primed for a stronger reaction if Powell leans dovish. ETH continues to hold above an ascending trendline connecting April and August lows — a technical level some view as a trigger for renewed bullish momentum.

Futures open interest (OI) in both BTC and ETH rose 1% in the past 24 hours, suggesting cautious capital inflows, potentially hedging against hawkish Fed commentary. By contrast, OI in tokens such as SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP, and ADA declined, signaling capital rotation and outflows.

However, speculative activity has cooled across the board. Volume across major altcoins — excluding BTC — has dropped by over 20% as traders wait on the sidelines for Powell’s guidance.

On CME, OI in standard ether futures remains elevated near 2 million ETH, while BTC futures remain below July’s lows, reflecting lukewarm institutional interest. In contrast, ETH options OI surged to $1 billion — the highest this year — while BTC options climbed to $4.44 billion, the most since May.

Implied volatility is ticking higher: BTC options on Deribit are pricing in a 2% daily move, above the 30-day average of 1.18%. Put options continue to trade at a premium, underscoring bearish sentiment. Nasdaq-linked ETFs are showing similar downside bias.

Block trading on OTC platform Paradigm has been mixed, with traders deploying a range of directional and hedging strategies, including outright calls, put spreads, and risk reversals.

On-Chain Insights: Insider Trading Concerns Around YZY, LIBRA

Blockchain analyst Dethective uncovered suspicious wallet activity linked to the YZY and LIBRA token launches, with insiders allegedly extracting over $23 million through early access and pre-seeded trades.

One wallet bought $250,000 worth of YZY at $0.20 — significantly below the public price — and flipped the position for nearly $1 million within minutes. The same wallet is tied to similar gains during LIBRA’s launch six months prior, where two wallets realized $9 million and $11.5 million respectively.

These wallets appeared exclusively around the token launches and instantly committed large capital — behavior Dethective believes would be impossible without insider access.

While no definitive link has been proven, speculation has mounted around LIBRA founder Hayden Davis. Analysts warn that “celebrity tokens” may serve as thinly veiled insider extraction schemes that exploit retail buyers.

Research from Defioasis paints a bleak picture for average investors: over 60% of YZY traders lost money, with most profitable wallets tied to insiders. Just 406 wallets earned more than $10,000, while five made over $1 million. One trader reportedly lost over $1 million in a single day.

Ripple, SBI Launch RLUSD Stablecoin in Japan

Ripple and SBI Holdings are deepening their partnership with the launch of RLUSD in Japan by Q1 2026, following a new memorandum of understanding. RLUSD, introduced in December 2024, is fully backed by U.S. dollar reserves, short-term Treasuries, and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations provided by an independent auditor.

SBI’s regulated crypto platform, SBI VC Trade, will handle RLUSD distribution, marking one of the first stablecoin integrations under Japan’s newly enacted digital asset framework.

SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said RLUSD will “diversify stablecoin options in Japan” and help establish greater trust in digital finance. Ripple executives positioned RLUSD as a compliance-first stablecoin designed to bridge traditional finance with decentralized networks.

The move follows Japan’s approval of its first yen-backed stablecoin earlier this week, underscoring a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape in Asia.