Crypto markets gain traction amid strong on-chain signals and geopolitical easing, as Polymarket traders raise Bitcoin’s breakout odds to $125K while BTC dominance dips below 61%.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $119,430 in early Asian trading on Monday, marking a 1.24% increase and extending bullish momentum following several institutional achievements and a landmark U.S.–EU trade deal. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index rose 2.37% to 4,099.18, continuing its recent upward trend.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a new trade framework in Turnberry, Scotland. The agreement set a 15% tariff on U.S. imports from the EU, significantly down from the previously threatened 30%. It also secures $600 billion in EU investment toward U.S. energy and defense over the next three years, aiming to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian fuel sources. Tariffs on steel and aluminum remain at 50% for now.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization — which measures the value of coins based on their last movement — surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, per Glassnode data.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate above $118,000 after hitting a record high of $122,700 last week. This surge triggered profit-taking by long-term holders while attracting fresh capital and new buyers. Bitcoin dominance, which tracks BTC’s share of total crypto market capitalization, slipped to 60.98%, hinting at a modest rotation into altcoins.

On Friday, Galaxy Digital announced the completion of a $9 billion Bitcoin transaction for a Satoshi-era investor, involving 80,000 BTC — one of the largest transfers in crypto history. The sale was reportedly part of an estate planning process.

Despite the size, the price remained relatively stable, underscoring Bitcoin’s illiquidity due to extensive long-term holding. This suggests the market is poised for a supply-shock rally that can absorb even large sales without major disruption.

Polymarket traders now assign a 24% chance to Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by the end of July, up from 18% earlier in the week, as growing on-chain conviction and favorable macro factors boost sentiment.

Market Highlights

• BTC: Trading above $119K amid U.S.–EU trade progress, while CoinGlass data shows traders reducing majority short positions.
• ETH: Ether rose 3% to $3,867.76, supported by strong on-chain fundamentals — with 28% of ETH staked, exchange balances at an eight-year low, and new buyer inflows climbing.
• Gold: Despite a 28% year-to-date gain, gold prices fell for the fourth straight day, trading near $3,335 in Asia as easing trade tensions lower safe-haven demand ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results Monday as investors awaited updates on U.S.–China trade negotiations.