Crypto Markets Ease Lower as Traders Eye Seasonal Patterns and Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin remains in a holding pattern as traders weigh macro headwinds and seasonal quietude, with some analysts still forecasting potential upside if key levels break.

Crypto markets edged lower on Thursday, under pressure from hawkish macro signals, looming global trade deadlines, and thinning volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $104,700 during Asian trading hours, down 1.2% over 24 hours, while ether (ETH) slipped 1.8% to just under $2,860.

The sluggish price action comes in the wake of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, where rates were left unchanged, but officials maintained a cautious stance focused on stubborn inflation.

Seasonal Lull Sets In

Historically, crypto markets tend to slow in the June-July period, and the trend appears intact this year. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted in a Thursday broadcast that front-end implied volatility for BTC has fallen below 40%, erasing much of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported recent price swings.

Meanwhile, open interest across BTC and ETH perpetual futures remains largely stagnant. In options markets, puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling that traders remain wary of short-term downside.

Still, technical signals remain constructive, said Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group. “There’s been no change to the technical picture, which remains supportive of another push to the topside,” Kruger told CoinDesk via email. “BTC continues to consolidate bullishly, and a move through recent highs could set up a run toward $145,000.”

Kruger noted that while ether continues to trail its 2021 highs, momentum is building. “Clearing $2,900 could bring $3,400 into play,” he said.

Regulatory Tailwinds Offer Support

One positive development for crypto markets is the U.S. Senate’s recent approval of a stablecoin regulatory framework, adding momentum to a broader shift toward a more crypto-friendly global environment. “Globally, we’re seeing continued progress that promises greater clarity and a more welcoming environment for institutional crypto adoption,” Kruger said.

In the immediate term, however, caution remains. Month-end options expiries, systematic portfolio rebalancing, and a lack of new catalysts could keep bitcoin trading within its current $102,000–$108,000 range for now.

Yet, some analysts are already looking toward the second half of the year, which has historically been bullish for crypto markets. “The worst may be behind us,” Kruger said. “And the next leg up could catch many off guard.”