Gold Surges as Bitcoin Struggles to Match ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative

Gold is rallying on expectations of rate cuts and rising geopolitical risk, while Bitcoin has struggled to hold key psychological levels, remaining sensitive to the same forces that impact equities and other risk assets.

The divergence is drawing renewed attention to a long-standing debate among crypto investors: if Bitcoin is meant to be digital gold, it should thrive in exactly these conditions. Currently, it is not.

Gold has climbed more than 70% this year, while silver has surged roughly 150%, both on track for their strongest annual gains since 1979. Platinum has also reached record levels, reflecting a broader rally across precious metals as investors seek protection against geopolitical volatility and long-term currency risk.

Bitcoin’s struggles are partly structural. The market is still digesting a long period of leverage-driven trading, and recent rebounds have faced rapid profit-taking. Macro conditions add further pressure. Even with expected rate cuts, Bitcoin generally requires clear risk-on conditions, whereas gold benefits first from volatility in bond yields, swings in the dollar, and periods of “capital preservation.”

David Miller, chief investment officer at Catalyst Funds and portfolio manager of the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF, noted the divergence is hard to ignore. “Gold has had a record year, up over 60%. But Bitcoin too. Yet it’s clearly not digital gold,” he said. “Gold can have a record year while Bitcoin is down in the same period.”

Miller emphasized that Bitcoin can still play a role in portfolios over the long term, especially as a hedge against fiscal expansion and currency debasement. However, gold occupies a different position, serving as a reserve asset for central banks. “What gold does that Bitcoin can’t is act as an actual alternative reserve asset to a currency,” he said. “Bitcoin is largely a retail play, while gold remains institutional.”

Data from the World Gold Council shows holdings in gold-backed ETFs increased every month this year except May, reflecting sustained accumulation rather than short-term trading. State Street’s SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, has grown over 20% in 2025.

Wall Street sentiment also supports gold’s outlook. Goldman Sachs forecasts prices could rise toward $4,900 an ounce in 2026 under its base case, with upside risks skewed higher.

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