Bitcoin Falls Below $80K Despite $424M ETF Inflows as November Risks Build

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 despite U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting approximately $424 million over three consecutive trading sessions. The decline followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with two officials voting for a rate hike and raising uncertainty about the central bank’s next move.

On October 28, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $137.3 million in net inflows, marking their third consecutive day of positive flows. The Fed maintained its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4%, but disagreement among policymakers added to concerns about a possible increase in December.

Bitcoin initially rallied to $81,788 after the announcement before reversing during Asian trading. Weakness in semiconductor stocks spread across technology markets, pushing BTC down to $79,710 overnight.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded near $79,899, down 1.2% over 24 hours and 4.4% for October. If the monthly loss persists, October will become Bitcoin’s second consecutive losing October.

With November approaching, traders are preparing for several potential market catalysts, including U.S. midterm elections, upcoming inflation and employment figures, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Prediction markets have assigned a substantial probability to a December rate increase, creating additional uncertainty for risk assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Attract $424 Million in Three Days

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $424 million in combined inflows from October 26 through October 28, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for most of the buying.

SoSoValue data showed the following daily figures:

• October 26: $110.3 million in inflows, all directed to BlackRock’s IBIT.
• October 27: $176 million in net inflows, with none of the 12 funds recording net outflows.
• October 28: $137.3 million in inflows, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.

The recovery followed a difficult session on October 22, when the funds recorded $635.6 million in outflows, their largest single-day withdrawal since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each lost more than $200 million.

October’s cumulative ETF flows remained approximately $202 million negative through Monday. However, the subsequent buying pushed the monthly balance to roughly $110 million positive.

The 12 funds collectively held around $104.9 billion in assets, representing approximately 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total value. Since their launch in January 2024, they have accumulated $57.6 billion in net inflows, while IBIT alone holds approximately $66.1 billion.

Despite the renewed institutional demand, Bitcoin’s decline suggests that ETF inflows have not been sufficient to counter broader market pressure from economic uncertainty and weakness in technology stocks.

Fed’s Divided Decision Keeps Rate Hike Concerns Alive

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75%–4%, but the vote revealed differing views among policymakers about the direction of monetary policy.

The decision passed 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack supporting a 0.25-percentage-point increase instead.

The Fed described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Officials said additional economic information would help determine the next policy step.

Chair Kevin Warsh offered little guidance about December, stating that he did not favor forward guidance outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. He also denied that political considerations had influenced the decision ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

The two dissenting votes reinforced concerns that monetary policy could tighten further. According to the cited Polymarket figures, the probability of a quarter-point rate increase in December stood at approximately 77%, close to its level before the meeting.

Bitcoin initially gained ground following the announcement. After trading near $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET, BTC rose approximately 1.1% to $81,788 over the next two hours.

The recovery later reversed as semiconductor stocks weakened. Samsung’s chip division missed analyst expectations, and its shares fell more than 5%, dragging technology stocks lower.

Bitcoin subsequently dropped to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. More than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over 24 hours, adding to the selling pressure.

Bitcoin News: Important Dates for November

The upcoming economic calendar could determine whether expectations for another rate increase strengthen or ease.

Key dates for traders include:

• October 29: September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP reports, followed by Coinbase and Strategy earnings after the market closes.
• October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiry, with approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts valued at around $10.8 billion.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections.
• November 6: October employment report, following September’s reported addition of 29,000 jobs.
• November 10: October CPI release. September’s consumer inflation increased 3.7% year over year.
• December 9: The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled interest-rate decision.

These events could influence investor expectations for monetary policy and risk appetite. Higher rates may weigh on Bitcoin by making lower-risk investments more attractive, although the market response will depend on how much of the expected policy path is already reflected in prices.

Does November Usually Bring Bitcoin Gains?

Bitcoin’s reputation for strong November performance is based on a relatively small historical sample.

According to Binance data, BTC recorded gains in only three of the past eight Novembers. Its strongest performances occurred in 2020 and 2024, when it advanced 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed U.S. presidential elections.

The two midterm election years in the sample ended negatively. Bitcoin fell 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022.

However, eight years of data are insufficient to establish a dependable seasonal pattern. Both negative midterm Novembers also occurred during broader bear markets, making it difficult to isolate the impact of election timing.

Options markets are not currently signaling expectations for an unusually large move. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures implied 30-day Bitcoin volatility, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range recorded over the previous two weeks.

Historical trends therefore offer limited guidance for November. Incoming economic data, institutional flows, and changes in interest-rate expectations may prove more influential.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: $79,221 Is the Key Support Level

Bitcoin is testing an important price floor after falling below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).

At approximately $79,899, BTC traded below the 50-day EMA at $80,789. The cryptocurrency crossed this level three times during the previous week, highlighting uncertainty surrounding its short-term direction.

The October 24 low of $79,221 remains the immediate support level. A sustained break below that price could expose Bitcoin to further downside.

The main technical levels are:

• Resistance at $84,898: The October 21 high, where the previous rally stalled.
• Immediate support at $79,221: The October 24 low that has acted as the near-term price floor.
• Lower support between $76,264 and $76,476: The September 2 low and the 200-day EMA.

The longer-term trend remains comparatively stronger. Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA has risen from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. The 50-day EMA also crossed above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first such crossover since November 2025.

Nevertheless, the short-term outlook remains fragile while BTC trades below its 50-day EMA. A sustained recovery above $80,789 could help stabilize prices, while a break below $79,221 would bring the lower support zone into focus.

Outlook: Will ETF Demand Be Enough to Lift Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s latest ETF inflows signal renewed institutional interest after significant withdrawals earlier in October. However, the buying has not prevented BTC from slipping below $80,000.

The Fed’s divided decision, uncertainty over a potential December rate increase, and weakness in technology stocks continue to influence market sentiment.

Traders will be watching inflation and employment reports for clues about the Fed’s next move. Bitcoin’s ability to defend $79,221 will also help determine whether the current decline remains a temporary pullback or develops into a deeper correction.

Although Bitcoin has delivered strong November gains in some years, seasonal trends do not guarantee another rally. Its near-term direction is likely to depend on economic data, ETF flows, and broader financial-market conditions.