Coinbase Q2 Preview: Wall Street Divided as Trading Weakens but Services Gain Momentum

Coinbase (COIN) is set to report second-quarter earnings after Thursday’s market close, and analysts are split on what matters more for the crypto exchange’s future: falling trading volumes or the continued strength in its services business and regulatory tailwinds.

According to FactSet, Coinbase is expected to post Q2 revenue of $1.59 billion, up from $1.45 billion a year ago. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecast at $1.25. However, the top-line numbers mask a deeper debate — can Coinbase’s growing subscription and services (S&S) business offset declines in crypto spot trading?

Bearish on Trading Volume, Cautious on Outlook

Barclays analyst Benjamin Buddish holds a neutral view and is preparing for underwhelming trading figures. He estimates Q2 transaction revenue at just $741 million — well below FactSet’s $813.8 million consensus — citing a 43% quarter-over-quarter drop in retail activity, as inferred from Robinhood data and centralized exchange volume trends.

“We believe Robinhood’s crypto trading volumes are a strong proxy for Coinbase’s retail business in Q2,” Buddish noted.

Despite his concerns, Buddish raised his price target from $202 to $359, reflecting a valuation reset and the stock’s sharp rally — COIN has more than doubled since April and now trades around $380. Still, he maintained a neutral rating, pointing to short-term headwinds balanced by optimism over pending legislation such as the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts.

Bullish on Regulatory Momentum and Innovation

Citi’s Peter Christiansen is more optimistic, maintaining a buy rating and raising his price target to $505 from $270. Christiansen cited several positive catalysts, including Coinbase’s addition to the S&P 500, legislative progress on stablecoins, and clearer digital asset classifications under the CLARITY Act.

“Investors are starting to value blockchain-based solutions that serve real-world use cases,” Christiansen wrote, highlighting initiatives like tokenized equities and new payment rails.

While he acknowledged weak Q2 trading volumes, Christiansen sees upside in Coinbase’s monetization of USDC, increased Base network activity, and continued adoption of Coinbase One, the company’s subscription platform.

JPMorgan Sees Balanced Risk, But Execution Critical

JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington took a more balanced view, holding a neutral rating with a $404 year-end 2025 price target. His valuation includes Coinbase’s estimated $1.4 billion share of Circle’s USDC business (excluded from adjusted EBITDA), and he also accounted for $50 million in expenses related to a Q2 cybersecurity breach.

Worthington believes Coinbase is well-positioned in the broader crypto economy and admits to underestimating the early impact of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. Still, he cautioned that future performance will depend heavily on the company’s product pipeline — particularly in tokenization and payments.

“Coinbase’s trajectory will hinge on successful execution and regulatory clarity,” he said, adding that crypto sentiment and policy shifts could either accelerate or dampen growth.

Spotlight on Services Revenue

Coinbase’s S&S segment — which includes interest income, custody fees, staking, and subscriptions — remains a key revenue driver. Management previously guided between $600 million and $680 million for the quarter, but Barclays expects the final figure to exceed that at $703 million, driven by elevated BTC prices and rising USDC balances.

Christiansen also noted that while staking growth may be slowing, new initiatives like an updated wallet and a crypto-powered American Express credit card could help sustain the S&S segment.

The Volume Disconnect

Despite a rebound in crypto prices throughout 2025, trading activity has lagged. Coinbase handled $232 billion in spot volume during Q2, according to The Block — a 40% drop from the previous quarter. While futures activity was stronger, it too showed signs of cooling in June.

Coinbase shares rose 2% on Wednesday to $380, bringing year-to-date gains to 47%. With sentiment split and growth levers pulling in different directions, all eyes are on the Q2 earnings call for guidance on how Coinbase will navigate a shifting landscape.