June marked the weakest month on record for U.S. institutional demand, even as large holders stepped in to absorb the selling—an imbalance that has often appeared near major market lows.

Whales accumulated more than 270,000 bitcoin (BTC), worth roughly $16.7 billion, over the past two weeks, while U.S. institutions exited positions at record levels.

At the same time, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $4.06 billion in outflows in June, their worst month since launch and higher than the previous record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025.

Those withdrawals pushed ETF flows into negative territory for 2026 for the first time, although the funds still managed a modest $221 million inflow on Thursday.

Bitfinex analysts said large wallet holders moved in the opposite direction, adding more than 270,000 BTC over a two-week span. This accumulation occurred while the spot premium remained negative, suggesting demand was not primarily driven by U.S. spot trading desks.

The split between institutional selling and whale buying is a pattern often seen near cycle bottoms, where long-term holders absorb supply before broader price recovery begins.

Among major cryptocurrencies, Solana has been a clear outlier. SOL has risen about 15% since early June, even as bitcoin briefly fell to 21-month lows, supported by network upgrades and a surge in on-chain activity tied to tokenized real-world assets, which climbed 120% to $8.53 billion.

Bitfinex analysts called the divergence a “familiar pattern,” noting that altcoins typically sell off earlier in downturns but also tend to recover earlier.

However, not all altcoins are following the same path. Optimism and other Ethereum layer-2 tokens are trading near record lows after Base, Coinbase’s network, moved away from Optimism’s shared technology, weakening a key revenue narrative.

Looking ahead, markets are focused on upcoming inflation data as the next major catalyst. May inflation came in at 4.2%, but comments from Warsh at the ECB’s Sintra forum suggesting easing inflation pressures have already supported risk assets. A softer print could further shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy, which has weighed on bitcoin throughout the month ahead of the next FOMC meeting.