Gold and silver extended their January rally on Thursday, approaching major price milestones, while bitcoin (BTC $88,558) remained largely range-bound near $90,000.

Spot gold climbed about 2.5% to $4,950 per ounce, and silver surged over 6% to just under $99, capping a strong month in which gold rose more than 7% and silver jumped nearly 30%, far outpacing most major assets.

Prediction markets indicate traders view these levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts asking whether gold or ethereum will reach $5,000 first assign gold a 97% probability, with ETH still below $3,000. Month-end markets also favor gold finishing above $5,000 and silver surpassing $85, with significant bets on a $100 move.

Analysts are increasingly bullish. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 from $4,900. Bitcoin, by comparison, is expected to stay range-bound near $85,000 through January.

Volatility patterns highlight the divergence: silver’s 30-day realized volatility has surged into the high 60s, signaling strong momentum, while gold’s remains contained in the low 20s. Bitcoin’s volatility sits in the mid-30s even as prices hover near recent highs, showing a shift in where markets are expressing macro uncertainty.