Bitcoin fell Friday and Treasury yields climbed after the latest U.S. jobs report, but the market’s hawkish response appears stronger than the underlying shift in rate expectations.

The employment data has added to the argument for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month. Yet futures pricing shows that traders have not substantially increased their expectations for such a move.

The CME FedWatch Tool currently puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 58%. If delivered, the increase would push the Fed’s benchmark rate to a 3.75%-4% target range.

That probability is almost unchanged from a week earlier, when markets were reacting to Fed Chief Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at Jackson Hole. In practical terms, investors with direct exposure to Fed policy are still assigning roughly the same odds to a September hike despite the stronger jobs figures.

The difference between market positioning and the broader narrative is becoming increasingly clear. Analysts and social media commentators have grown more hawkish, while traders in rate-sensitive markets remain comparatively cautious.

The immediate reaction to Friday’s data was much sharper. Bitcoin dropped from about $81,300 to $78,700 within a few hours, while the two-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.36% to 4.42%.

Because two-year yields are highly responsive to expectations for monetary policy, the move initially appeared to signal a significant repricing of the Fed outlook. However, the relatively stable probability of a rate increase suggests the reaction may have been overstated.

A September hike remains possible, but markets are not treating it as a certainty. The picture could change after the Sept. 11 inflation report, especially if consumer prices come in below forecasts.

Some analysts have also questioned the case for raising rates while oil prices are elevated. They argue that tightening monetary policy during an oil shock could create additional economic pressure without delivering much benefit.

The Fed is scheduled to announce its next policy decision on Sept. 16.