
Bitcoin’s options market has become less defensive over the past month, with traders pulling back from the downside protection they added in June as the Federal Reserve’s meeting approaches.
The put/call ratio based on open interest, which measures the balance between put options that benefit from falling prices and call options that gain from price increases, has dropped to about 0.52 from 0.76 in late June, according to Glassnode data.
The decline shows that calls now account for a larger portion of market positioning, suggesting traders are reducing their hedges rather than increasing protection against potential losses. Recent activity among large investors shows growing interest in $70,000 strike calls and bullish call spreads, signaling expectations that bitcoin could move higher.
The options market is currently pricing in a relatively quiet week compared with the next several months, with traders expecting limited short-term volatility despite the upcoming Federal Reserve decision.
The 25-delta skew, which measures the premium traders pay for downside protection compared with similar upside exposure, has fallen to around 4% for one-week options. In contrast, three-month and six-month contracts continue to show higher levels between 11% and 12%.
The gap indicates that investors are still seeking protection against potential risks later in the year but have largely stepped away from short-term hedging.
Implied volatility, which reflects expected future price movements, has also declined across the options curve. One-week bitcoin options are pricing volatility at 34.3%, compared with 40.8% for six-month contracts.
The upward-sloping volatility curve suggests traders believe the immediate outlook is calmer than the longer-term environment. That setup is unusual ahead of a major scheduled event such as a Federal Reserve policy announcement.
The Fed’s interest-rate decision is due Wednesday, with markets currently assigning roughly a 15% chance of a rate increase in July. Based on current expectations, the subdued short-term options pricing appears reasonable.
However, the reduced demand for hedges leaves the market with less protection if the Fed’s statement or economic projections surprise investors. When positioning is light, unexpected developments can lead to sharper market swings.
Bitcoin traded around $65,000 for most of the previous week, holding firm despite Thursday’s sell-off that wiped out $797 billion from major U.S. technology stocks. The crypto market also dealt with several negative developments, including bankruptcy protection filings from blockchain projects Movement Labs and Storj, along with shutdown announcements from crypto exchanges BitMEX and BitMart.





