Bitcoin has fallen 55% against gold since its December 2024 peak, emphasizing its continued underperformance and casting doubt on the notion of bitcoin as “digital gold.”

Gold is approaching record highs just below $4,900 per ounce, up roughly 12% year-to-date, while bitcoin remains under $89,000 and has posted only modest gains this year.

The divergence extends across longer time frames. Over the past five years, gold has risen about 160%, slightly ahead of bitcoin’s 150% gain.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently stands near 18.46, well below its 200-week moving average (WMA) of 21.90—around 17% beneath this long-term trend.

During the 2022 bear market, the ratio fell more than 30% below the 200WMA and remained there for over a year. The current decline began in November, suggesting that, if history repeats, the ratio could stay below the 200WMA until late 2026.

The ratio reached a peak of 40.9 in December 2024, with bitcoin subsequently losing roughly 55% of its value relative to gold. Previous cycles saw even sharper declines, including a 77% drop in 2022 and an 84% fall during the 2017–2018 cycle.