Market positioning suggests a notable chance that bitcoin could start 2026 below $80,000, according to Derive co-founder Nick Forster.

Traders are increasingly taking defensive stances, preparing for a potential decline in BTC prices as the new year approaches.

“Skew’s sharp drop shows traders stacking put options, particularly for the Dec. 26 expiry, where open interest is concentrated at the $84K and $80K strikes,” Forster noted in a market update. “This positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K bitcoin to start 2026.”

At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $87,000, down roughly 30% from its all-time high above $126,000 reached on Oct. 8, according to CoinDesk data.

Forster added that the downtrend may not yet be over. “Short-dated volatility now sits above long-dated BTC volatility, indicating the market expects outsized swings as we head into the new year,” he said. Market participants appear to be pricing in a particularly volatile December.