Bitcoin’s return toward $86,000 has sparked fresh optimism among retail traders, with some market participants viewing the recovery as a sign that the bear market has ended. Dan Krupka, founder of Connection Capital and former head of research at Coin Bureau, has taken a more cautious stance, arguing that Bitcoin could be approaching the later stages of a relief rally before a potential liquidity-driven sell-off in Q4.

Krupka shared his 2026 market roadmap with subscribers on January 1. His outlook called for a brief rally during Q1, a decline through Q2 leading into a summer low, followed by a recovery phase through late Q3 and Q4. Crypto’s total market capitalization has since moved back toward its January baseline, broadly following that projected path.

With sentiment turning increasingly bullish, Krupka believes traders buying near $86,000 should pay attention to the next major resistance zone rather than assuming the recovery will continue uninterrupted.

$96,000 Could Be Bitcoin’s Next Major Test

According to Krupka’s technical analysis, the total crypto market capitalization is approaching the monthly Bollinger Band baseline. He considers this level important for assessing whether the market is transitioning into a sustained bull phase or remaining within a broader distribution pattern.

Krupka expects the market could briefly push above the band before facing renewed selling pressure.

His current price projections include:

• Bitcoin: A further 20%–30% advance could take BTC toward $96,000, where profit-taking may intensify before the $100,000 level.
• Ethereum: ETH could move toward the $3,300–$3,500 region, an area of potential overhead supply.
• Solana: SOL could recover toward $140–$160 during another relief move.

A continuation of the rally would also leave momentum indicators increasingly stretched. At those projected levels, weekly RSI could return to overbought territory across major cryptocurrencies. Krupka argues that a rapid advance could increase the severity of the eventual pullback once momentum weakens.

Stronger Dollar Could Pressure Crypto

The technical setup is only part of Krupka’s concern. He also points to the macroeconomic environment heading into late 2026 and early 2027.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains a central indicator in his outlook. Crypto markets can benefit from a weaker dollar and greater global liquidity, while a stronger dollar can weigh on risk-sensitive assets.

Krupka argues that energy shortages across Europe and Asia could continue putting pressure on the euro and yen, potentially directing more capital toward the dollar. The DXY is approaching its monthly Bollinger Band resistance, and a breakout could create additional headwinds for risk assets.

Other prominent market observers have also expressed concerns about elevated valuations and potential instability. Warren Buffett drew attention with comments in mid-September, while Michael Burry has continued warning about market risks throughout 2026.

If traditional risk assets experience a broader correction, crypto could also be affected.

Bitcoin’s Reaction at $96,000 May Matter

Krupka expects Bitcoin’s behavior around $96,000 to provide an important signal. A move into that area accompanied by weakening weekly momentum and a rising DXY could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.

Under a 50% retracement scenario, BTC could fall back toward the $30,000–$40,000 range.

Krupka has advised subscribers to enjoy the current strength while monitoring how Bitcoin responds near $96,000. His analysis emphasizes the difference between a short-term relief rally and a sustained macro-driven bull market.

If the projected resistance triggers a reversal, traders who interpret the current advance as the start of a new supercycle could face substantial downside, according to Krupka.