Bitcoin’s realized cap stabilization, elevated RHODL ratio, and persistently negative funding rates are increasingly being interpreted as evidence that a cycle bottom may have formed earlier this year.

For Bitcoin (BTC) investors, the key debate is whether the market already printed its low in early February, when prices briefly dropped toward $60,000 during a sharp correction. While no single metric can confirm a definitive bottom, a growing set of on-chain and derivatives indicators suggests the worst of the selloff may already be behind the market, particularly with BTC now trading back above $77,000.

One of the most important signals is Realized Cap, which measures Bitcoin’s valuation based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Unlike market capitalization, which reflects current spot pricing, Realized Cap represents the aggregate cost basis of holders and is commonly used to track capital inflows and outflows across the network.

Realized Cap peaked near $1.12 trillion before easing to around $1.08 trillion as Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its October all-time high. The decline represented one of the largest wealth drawdowns in Bitcoin’s history. However, the metric has since stabilized, suggesting early-stage base formation similar to prior cycle bottoms, including the 2022 bear market.

Another key indicator is the RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by longer-term holders (six months to two years) against newer market participants (one day to three months). The ratio currently sits above 5, its third-highest reading on record. Historically, only the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms produced higher levels, indicating that long-term holders continue to dominate supply. Since February, this cohort has accumulated more than 400,000 BTC.

Derivatives positioning adds further context. Perpetual futures funding rates—the periodic payments between long and short traders used to anchor futures prices to spot—remained deeply negative for an extended period between February and May. Sustained negative funding is typically associated with extreme bearish sentiment and crowded short positioning, conditions that often emerge near market bottoms as selling pressure is exhausted.

Similar setups have been observed during major macro stress episodes, including the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the tariff-driven selloff in April 2025, all of which ultimately coincided with major Bitcoin lows and subsequent recoveries.