Bitcoin ETFs returned to net positive inflows on November 4 as BTC climbed back above $81,000, offering a recovery signal after several days of substantial investor withdrawals. However, the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy has become less encouraging after Goldman Sachs revised its expectations for interest rate reductions. The investment bank now anticipates two cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, citing persistent inflation and continued strength in the U.S. labor market.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted $74.6 million in fresh capital, ending a three-session outflow streak that had resulted in approximately $1.16 billion in withdrawals. Fidelity’s FBTC led the latest recovery, while BlackRock’s IBIT continued to experience considerable selling pressure.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund recorded approximately $236.7 million in inflows on November 4. Bitwise’s BITB attracted an additional $15.2 million, while ARK Invest’s ARKB received $19.9 million.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, however, recorded $201.2 million in net outflows. The latest withdrawals extended its negative streak to four consecutive sessions, taking cumulative outflows over that period to approximately $935 million.

The divergence in fund flows suggests that institutional demand remains inconsistent across Bitcoin investment products. While Fidelity and other issuers attracted fresh investments, continued withdrawals from BlackRock’s fund indicate that some investors are still reducing their exposure.

Bitcoin also staged a notable rebound after touching approximately $75,600 during the November 3 U.S. midterm election period, its lowest level in seven weeks. The cryptocurrency subsequently recovered above $81,000 as financial markets adjusted to the election outcome. However, the rebound appears to reflect several contributing factors rather than a single market catalyst.

Goldman Sachs Pushes Fed Rate Cut Expectations to December 2026

Goldman Sachs has revised its Federal Reserve forecast, postponing its anticipated interest rate reductions by three months. The bank now expects the central bank to deliver its next two cuts in December 2026 and March 2027.

The updated projection reflects concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. In particular, higher energy prices could keep core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation around 3% throughout the year.

Goldman economist David Mericle noted that weaker inflation figures and additional signs of deterioration in the labor market would likely be required before the Federal Reserve considers cutting rates earlier.

The bank has retained its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate to reach between 3% and 3.25%. However, it also recognizes that the Fed could reconsider further reductions if economic activity and employment continue to demonstrate resilience.

Bank of America has adopted an even more cautious position, eliminating its projected rate cuts for 2026 and shifting its expected start of monetary easing to the third quarter of 2027.

The delayed outlook could create additional pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Lower interest rates typically reduce borrowing expenses and improve market liquidity, encouraging investors to allocate more capital toward higher-risk investments. A prolonged period of elevated rates could therefore restrict liquidity and weaken demand for cryptocurrencies.

Despite these concerns, the latest Bitcoin ETF figures indicate that institutional investors are still finding opportunities to increase their exposure. The return of positive net flows suggests that demand for BTC remains present even as expectations for Federal Reserve easing move further into the future.

Bitcoin now faces two contrasting market forces. Continued ETF accumulation could provide buying support and help the cryptocurrency maintain its recent gains. However, persistent inflation and restrictive monetary conditions could limit capital inflows and prevent a stronger recovery.

Investors will be closely watching upcoming inflation reports, labor market data, and daily ETF flows to determine whether institutional demand can sustain Bitcoin’s upward momentum despite the changing Federal Reserve outlook.