From Panic to Positioning: Bitcoin Rallies 130% Since Yen Carry Trade Unwind, as Long-Term Holders Accumulate

One year ago, global markets were jolted by the sudden unwinding of the yen carry trade. As Japan pivoted toward a tighter monetary stance and bond yields climbed, the once-popular strategy of borrowing in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets rapidly lost appeal.

The fallout triggered a swift exit from risk assets. Bitcoin, then trading above $70,000, plunged nearly 30% to $49,000 — levels last seen during the debut of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.

Fast forward 12 months, and the narrative has flipped. Bitcoin has surged more than 130% since that low, with broader markets also posting strong returns. The S&P 500 has gained 24%, while gold has appreciated 40%, signaling growing appetite for both risk-on and defensive assets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened. The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has declined from 103 to just below 100. This coincides with a sharp rise in long-duration bond yields: the U.S. 10-year yield has climbed to 4.2% from 3.7%, while the 30-year has jumped to 4.8% from 4.0%.

International bond markets echoed the trend. The U.K.’s 30-year gilt yield surged to 5.3% from 4.3%, while Japan’s equivalent more than doubled to over 3% from 1.9% — a dramatic move reflecting shifting global rate expectations.

Despite the turbulence, long-term Bitcoin holders have remained resilient — and are steadily accumulating.

Glassnode’s HODL Waves, a tool that visualizes Bitcoin supply by age of coins held, reveals a growing conviction among long-term investors. The share of supply held for 7 to 10 years has doubled from 4% to over 8% in the past year. Similarly, coins held for 6 to 12 months now represent 15% of supply, up from 8%.

This pattern indicates that seasoned holders are reinforcing their positions, while newer entrants — likely drawn in by the rally — have pushed up the share of coins held for less than 3 months compared to 2024 levels. That shift suggests a mix of fresh demand and possible top-chasing behavior.