Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 7.6% decline after approaching the key $100,000 mark on November 22, but the drop isn’t particularly unusual in the context of a bull market. This marks the most significant pullback since the rally that followed Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win, which propelled Bitcoin from $66,000 to its all-time high.

Corrections like this are common in bull markets, with Bitcoin often falling by 20% to 30% as excess leverage gets flushed out. In this case, the primary factor behind Bitcoin’s failure to break the $100,000 threshold has been substantial profit-taking, particularly by long-term holders (LTHs). On November 21, a record $10.5 billion worth of profit was realized, making it the largest profit-taking day ever, according to Glassnode data.

Long-term holders, who are defined by Glassnode as investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, are typically seen as “smart money” because they tend to buy when the price is low and sell when market euphoria sets in. From September to November 2024, long-term holders have sold 549,119 BTC, or 3.85% of their holdings. Their sales have surpassed purchases from institutional buyers, such as MicroStrategy and U.S.-listed ETFs.

Looking at historical trends in past bull markets, the percentage decline in Bitcoin price has decreased with each cycle. In 2017, the correction was 25.3%, in 2021 it was 13.4%, and earlier this year, it was 6.51%. Currently, the correction stands at 3.85%. If this trend continues, it would suggest that an additional 163,031 BTC might be sold, bringing long-term holders’ supply down to 13.54 million BTC.

This ongoing trend of smaller corrections and higher lows in the supply held by long-term investors indicates that while some selling pressure may persist, the market could be on the verge of stabilizing, paving the way for further growth.